Current affairs 16th July By Right IAS
Topic ⟶ Bayesian analysis
Bayesian analysis is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes’ Theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Key Idea: Bayesian analysis combines: Prior belief (prior probability) about a situation or parameter New evidence (likelihood) from data To produce: Updated belief (posterior probability)
Applications of Bayesian Analysis: Medicine Diagnostic tests, clinical trials Machine Learning Naive Bayes classifier, Bayesian networks Finance Risk modelling, stock prediction Ecology Population estimation Politics Election forecasting (e.g., FiveThirtyEight uses Bayesian models)
The Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE) and the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) are both space-based missions focused on the search for and characterization of exoplanets, particularly those that might be habitable. LIFE, an ESA project, uses a mid-infrared nulling interferometer to study the thermal emission of exoplanets, while HWO, a NASA mission, utilizes a coronagraph or starshade to block out a star’s light and directly image and analyze the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets in the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared (UV/VIS/NIR)
Topic ⟶ What is a Black Hole Merger?
What is a Black Hole Merger? A black hole is an object in space that is so dense and heavy that nothing, not even light, can escape its gravity. A black hole merger happens when two black holes get close to each other and start spinning around each other. As they spin, they lose energy by sending out invisible waves in space called gravitational waves. Slowly, they come closer and closer, until they finally crash into each other and become one bigger black hole What are Gravitational Waves? Gravitational waves are like ripples in space-time, similar to ripples on the surface of water when you throw a stone. These ripples are created when very heavy objects, like black holes, move quickly or crash. These waves can be detected on Earth by very sensitive machines like: LIGO (USA) Virgo (Italy) KAGRA (Japan)
The Recent Discovery: GW231123 On July 10, 2025, scientists from around the world announced they had discovered a major black hole merger. This event is called GW231123 (which stands for Gravitational Wave on 2023-11-23). It was actually detected on November 23, 2023, by LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA.
The Recent Discovery: GW231123 On July 10, 2025, scientists from around the world announced they had discovered a major black hole merger. This event is called GW231123 (which stands for Gravitational Wave on 2023-11-23). It was actually detected on November 23, 2023, by LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA.
Topic ⟶ Decline in multilateralism
The world is going through a major change in global power and diplomacy. Multilateralism (where countries work together under common global rules) is fading, and countries like India need to adapt by focusing on national growth and leadership of the Global South.
Key Points:
1. Decline of Multilateralism and Rise of Unilateralism: The U.S. under Donald Trump is focusing on bilateral trade deals, weakening global institutions like theUnited Nations. This change breaks the unity of the Global South, which earlier relied on group bargaining (like in the G-77). The recent BRICS Summit (July 2025) showed no pushback against this trend, and the final declaration did not address the growing rejection of multilateralism.
U.S. National Interest has Shifted: The U.S. now prioritizes: Self-sufficiency Limiting China’s influence Power is no longer exercised through global organizations but through: Trade Sanctions Spheres of influence This shift has confused the global diplomatic system, erasing 75 years of international norms. India’s Strategic Response: A. Focus on South-South Cooperation and National Growth India must recognize that multilateralism is over and instead focus on: Building economic strength Leading the Global South by example Support from Global South is needed not for money but for influence in international bodies. B. Redefine ‘Strategic Autonomy’ India must clearly define its neutrality between big powers (e.g., U.S. vs. China) and vote in global bodies based on its core interests.
Look East, Not West: India’s growth model should take lessons from East Asian countries. Focus on building: Infrastructure like expressways, bullet trains, data centres Energy supply and research universities Trade deals should favour ASEAN countries over the U.S. Loss of exports to the U.S. (like steel) can be replaced by internal development and regional trade. India’s Strength in Innovation: India is becoming a leader in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (AI, digital tech, GenAI). India has now more GenAI patents than the U.K. or Germany. This gives India a foundation for self-driven growth and technology-based development.
New Military Strategy: Modern warfare is now about: Satellites Drones Cyber weapons Missiles India can lead in all these areas and reduce dependence on imported heavy weapons and ground troops. This enhances foreign policy flexibility and boosts local innovation and growth. Reframing Border Disputes: India should aim to settle long standing border issues with a growth-focused mindset. Defence Minister’s remarks on not being “stuck in the past” with China were well-received. The Indus Waters Treaty could be a model for building trust with Pakistan. A formal international border in Ladakh could help settle disputes in Jammu and Kashmir.
2026 BRICS Summit as a Turning Point: India hosts the BRICS Summit in 2026, which is an opportunity to: Lead a new kind of Global South cooperation Move away from old-style multilateral bargaining Create South-South trade by redirecting value chains Share prosperity without harming local industries Conclusion: The global order is changing, and India must act smartly. It must focus on: Economic independence South-South alliances Modern technology Peaceful border solutions Leadership in global diplomacy This is India’s chance to redefine its global role and build a new world order from the South, not follow the broken structures of the past.
1. Decline of Multilateralism and Rise of Unilateralism: The U.S. under Donald Trump is focusing on bilateral trade deals, weakening global institutions like theUnited Nations. This change breaks the unity of the Global South, which earlier relied on group bargaining (like in the G-77). The recent BRICS Summit (July 2025) showed no pushback against this trend, and the final declaration did not address the growing rejection of multilateralism.
U.S. National Interest has Shifted: The U.S. now prioritizes: Self-sufficiency Limiting China’s influence Power is no longer exercised through global organizations but through: Trade Sanctions Spheres of influence This shift has confused the global diplomatic system, erasing 75 years of international norms. India’s Strategic Response: A. Focus on South-South Cooperation and National Growth India must recognize that multilateralism is over and instead focus on: Building economic strength Leading the Global South by example Support from Global South is needed not for money but for influence in international bodies. B. Redefine ‘Strategic Autonomy’ India must clearly define its neutrality between big powers (e.g., U.S. vs. China) and vote in global bodies based on its core interests.
Look East, Not West: India’s growth model should take lessons from East Asian countries. Focus on building: Infrastructure like expressways, bullet trains, data centres Energy supply and research universities Trade deals should favour ASEAN countries over the U.S. Loss of exports to the U.S. (like steel) can be replaced by internal development and regional trade. India’s Strength in Innovation: India is becoming a leader in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (AI, digital tech, GenAI). India has now more GenAI patents than the U.K. or Germany. This gives India a foundation for self-driven growth and technology-based development.
New Military Strategy: Modern warfare is now about: Satellites Drones Cyber weapons Missiles India can lead in all these areas and reduce dependence on imported heavy weapons and ground troops. This enhances foreign policy flexibility and boosts local innovation and growth. Reframing Border Disputes: India should aim to settle long standing border issues with a growth-focused mindset. Defence Minister’s remarks on not being “stuck in the past” with China were well-received. The Indus Waters Treaty could be a model for building trust with Pakistan. A formal international border in Ladakh could help settle disputes in Jammu and Kashmir.
2026 BRICS Summit as a Turning Point: India hosts the BRICS Summit in 2026, which is an opportunity to: Lead a new kind of Global South cooperation Move away from old-style multilateral bargaining Create South-South trade by redirecting value chains Share prosperity without harming local industries Conclusion: The global order is changing, and India must act smartly. It must focus on: Economic independence South-South alliances Modern technology Peaceful border solutions Leadership in global diplomacy This is India’s chance to redefine its global role and build a new world order from the South, not follow the broken structures of the past.
